IMF World Economic Outlook
September 22, 2005Petrol prices, terrorism, Labor Party – Interview with Tracey Grimshaw, Today Show
September 27, 2005Press Conference
Treasury Place, Melbourne
Friday, 23 September 2005
11.10 am
SUBJECTS: Final Budget Outcome 2004-05, Petrol Prices, Scoresby
TREASURER:
The Final Budget Outcome for the Commonwealth Government in the 2004-2005 year
measures that at 30 June 2005 there was a surplus of 1.6 per cent of GDP, higher
than forecast at Budget time of 1.1 per cent of GDP. In cash terms the surplus
which was $4.4 billion higher than forecast at the time at the 2005-2006 Budget.
The reason why the outcome was higher than forecast was principally because
cash payments were lower than expected. The outcome was $4.4 billion higher
in cash terms. Cash payments were around $3.5 billion lower than was expected
at the time of the Budget. No one particular factor contributed to those lower
payments but as you will see on page one of the Final Budget Outcome, the lower
cash payments were due mainly to lower than expected take up of grants and subsidy
payments across a range of programmes, delays in contractual negotiations in
deliveries of goods and services, lower wages and salary payments and the rejection
by two State Governments of an offer to extinguish superannuation liabilities.
In cash terms, revenues were marginally higher around about $0.9 billion coming
mainly out of company taxes. The tables on revenue and expenses which you see
on page three and page five are in accrual terms and they contributed to a fiscal
balance which was higher than expected at Budget time, in the Final Budget Outcome
a fiscal balance which was around $10.8 billion or 1.2 per cent of GDP compared
with an estimate at Budget time of 0.8.
So, the outcome for the Budget year was a little stronger than expected, 1.6
per cent of GDP in cash terms rather than 1.1 per cent. It was because payments
were less than expected, some of those payments might find their way into this
financial year but it is important that the Australian Government continue to
run a surplus budget at this stage of the economic cycle, it is important that
the Budget be in surplus, it is also important that it be in surplus because
the Government needs to contribute to savings at a time when the private sector
is borrowing, including households borrowing. The Government by building up
savings, by running surplus budgets puts downward pressure on interest rates.
And the important thing is that the Government makes its contribution to keeping
downward pressure on interest rates because low interest rates are a big part
of the Australian growth story, to keep Australia growing and to keep people
in work.
Thank you, I will take any questions.
JOURNALIST:
Treasurer, can you give us, what are some of the programmes that…
TREASURER:
Were underspends?
JOURNALIST:
…yes.
TREASURER:
Yes, there were underspends in health and ageing because of delays in negotiations
principally with the States in getting money out. There were underspends in
agricultural grants, largely delays in relation to the sugar industry package;
there were underspends in Australian Federal Police deployments to New Guinea;
there were underspends in some areas of the Commonwealth Government due to shortfalls
in new recruitment of employees; there were some lower payments for salaries
and wages across a number of small agencies. And as I said earlier, the Australian
Government made an offer to two States to extinguish its superannuation liabilities
and budgeted to make those payments – those states rejected the offer and as
a consequence the Commonwealth Government saved itself about half a billion
dollars.
JOURNALIST:
With that rejection aside, those other underspends you would expect to be caught
up with (inaudible)?
TREASURER:
Yes it is quite true, we are talking cash terms and in cash terms if you have
got an underspend in the previous financial year they normally get paid in this
financial year. So, it is a timing thing. If you actually look at the accrual
expenses, the accrual expenses didn’t actually change that much. So, it
is really a timing thing, there was a better cash outcome because cash payments
were down, many of those payments were down because the money wasn’t expended
before the 30th of June and the payments will move into the current
financial year.
JOURNALIST:
Does that happen very often?
TREASURER:
Yes. To be frank with you, in a $200 billion budget, $3.5 billion is what,
it is about 1 per cent. So it is not uncommon to have movements of around
1 per cent, it is not a large sum when you look at $200 billion of revenue
and $200 billion of expenses.
JOURNALIST:
The net debt fell as well.
TREASURER:
Yes, the consequence of a better than expected outcome for the final budget
result in 2004-05 is that net debt would be reduced by more than budgeted. Net
debt fell by $11.9 billion to leave only $11.5 billion of net debt outstanding
for the Commonwealth Government. That means that the Commonwealth Government
net debt to GDP ratio is 1.3 per cent and that is the lowest in 28 years. So,
if you go back further than 28 years you actually find that the Commonwealth
didn’t have net debt they actually had a surplus position. So, we are
now well on our way to getting back to where we were in the 1970s with the elimination
of Commonwealth net debt. And that is an important point that the Commonwealth
didn’t actually carry net debt back in the early seventies, I can actually
give you the years. It wasn’t really until the advent of the Whitlam Government
that the Commonwealth started going into debt and borrowing as a consequence,
peaking under the Keating Government.
JOURNALIST:
Could you give us some ideas about current projections as to when that might
actually happen and the underlying themes, are they revenues or costs to contribute
into that, please?
TREASURER:
Well the reason why the Commonwealth has reduced debt from around about 20
per cent of GDP to 1 per cent of GDP is that we have run now eight surplus Budgets
and the proceeds of our privatisation programme have gone to retiring debt.
When Labor was in office they used to privatise and spend the money. What we
have done is we have privatised and we have used it to reduce the mortgage.
When you sell an asset you should decrease a liability or buy another asset
not spend the money and have nothing left to show for it at the end of the year.
So, it has been a combination of running surplus Budgets, eight surplus Budgets,
it has been a combination of ensuring that we didn’t waste the proceeds
of privatisation. Australia now has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in
the world, not the lowest but there would only be a couple ahead of us and because
the Government is reducing debt and building savings it is keeping downward
pressure on interest rates and it is also very good financial management for
this time of the cycle. You would expect that at this point of the cycle after
a decade of growth that Australia would have a low debt position.
JOURNALIST:
With all of this extra money floating around is there any chance of any help
with petrol prices?
TREASURER:
Well, can I say as you can see from today’s figures, the Commonwealth
Government gets no additional revenue from increasing petrol prices. The Commonwealth
excise is 38 cents if the price is 90 cents a litre and it is 38 cents if it
is $1.40 a litre. There is no additional excise collected by the Commonwealth
Government. Now people say what about GST. All GST goes to the State Governments.
It is possible that State Governments are collecting more GST on petrol. Some
State Governments like Queensland use that to subsidise the price, others like
Victoria don’t. So, these are matters that can be taken up with the State
Government but this is the point. Commonwealth excise is 38 cents a litre, it
doesn’t move. Whatever the price is, it is just 38 cents a litre. It isn’t
even indexed to inflation. If it had been indexed to inflation, if we hadn’t
have abolished indexation, by today it would be 52 cents a litre. But we cut
it and abolished indexation and it is still 38 cents a litre.
JOURNALIST:
Do you think the State Governments should be doing more to subsidise price?
TREASURER:
Well you know this is a matter for State Governments. All I am saying is, there
is one State Government that does – that’s Queensland and there
are five that don’t.
JOURNALIST:
But can you understand that people would think today and see that there is
all this money floating around and that they’re just putting more money
into their cars with petrol. Can you understand that people would want you to
help out? Is there anything the Government can do?
TREASURER:
Well the reason that petrol prices are going up is that world oil prices are
increasing. People know that. Petrol prices are going up in America, in Europe,
in Britain, in Asia and that is because they are based on world oil prices.
The worst thing that we have had recently is another hurricane in the United
States and unfortunately what that hurricane could well do is push up the price
of oil again, just as it was coming back, and even worse take out refining capacity.
Now where oil prices are being influenced by international events, such as hurricanes
in the United States, there is not much the Australian Government can do about
it. What we really need, is, we need more world oil production. That is what
we need. And I have raised this at international fora. I hope that it will be
raised again and again on behalf of not just Australians but on behalf of consumers
throughout the world. There have been some signs from the oil producing nations
that they may be increasing production and that’s about the only lasting
thing that would have an effect in bringing oil prices down.
JOURNALIST:
What would be the effects on the economy of these continuing high petrol prices?
TREASURER:
Well let me make this point – high petrol prices are good for nobody
except perhaps the oil exporting nations of OPEC. They are not good for Australian
consumers, they are not good for Australian business, the don’t give the
Commonwealth Government any money – extra money – and they will
feed into the Consumer Price Index. So, petrol prices are bad for consumers,
bad for the economy, they are bad for the Consumer Price Index, they are not
good for the Commonwealth Government and the only people they help are the oil
exporting nations and that’s why the oil exporting nations should be increasing
production. Not just for the sake of the Australian economy and Australian consumers
but for the sake of the world economy. High oil prices are no good for the world
economy either because they will dampen world economic growth, no doubt about
that. Now you have got to hold these things in balance. I am not forecasting
world recession I am just saying that whatever growth would have been, the high
oil prices will dampen it, and that is not good for the globe.
JOURNALIST:
You mention that commodity price increases have been beneficial for the tax
take this year, what about the resources boom and is that also being a corresponding
tax boom for the Federal Government?
TREASURER:
The resources boom has meant that certainly Australia’s mining companies
have been extremely profitable, extremely profitable and you only have to look
at annual results. A consequence of that, is that company tax has been strong
particularly, in relation to mining companies. Now as you know we cut company
tax some years ago but company profits are so high that that is assisting with
revenues and from an ordinary Australian taxpayer’s point of view that
is a good thing. That is the way in which the taxpayer shares in the mining
boom. Companies, particularly in the mining areas have higher profits, they
pay more taxes; it is one of the reasons why we were able to cut everybody’s
income tax on the 1st of July this year.
JOURNALIST:
Can you put a figure on what that (inaudible)?
TREASURER:
Well the figures on company taxes are in here – company tax in 2004-05
raised about $43 billion. That is not just mining companies of course, that
is all companies.
JOURNALIST:
May I ask we are strongly advised by the State Opposition and it is sort of
widely accepted here now that you inspired and endorsed Robert Doyle’s
“half-tolls” policy? Is that the case?
TREASURER:
I completely support Robert Doyle and his policy. Absolutely. But can I make
this point: Mr Doyle is the person who, together with his Parliamentary colleagues,
makes these policies. I think this is a very important point, that the State
Liberal Party generates, develops and announces State Liberal policy. The Federal
Liberal Party generates, develops and announces Federal Liberal policy. And
that is because each area of Government is responsible for its own policy. But
I strongly endorse him in his policies. Absolutely. And you know to be frank
if I were a commuter out in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne and I can’t
have a freeway like the rest of Australia has or the rest of Victoria has, I
would at least like to have a 50 per cent discount on my tolls. And I don’t
think there is any choice. If you are a resident or a commuter in the eastern
suburbs of Melbourne, Bracks wants to make you pay double for your transport
costs. So I don’t think there is any doubt at all that the Doyle Policy,
if you happen to live in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, is a much better
policy.
JOURNALIST:
Will that $442 million that was in dispute be spent on Victorian roads?
TREASURER:
Well the money was allocated according to a signed Agreement with Steve Bracks
who broke the Agreement. Unfortunately, we have never had a case where a State
Government has broken a written Agreement before on road funding. So we will
have to now consider what to do about that. Certainly I would want to see money
come back into Victoria but the trouble is all the other State Premiers will
say, we keep our written Agreements and Bracks breaks his. And they will not
be as supportive as I am of the Victorian public. So this is now a matter that
goes back into the hopper and I can assure you I want to see some of that money
coming back into Victoria because I don’t think Victorians should be punished
for Mr Bracks breaking his word.
JOURNALIST:
So will you be advocating for that money to be allocated…
TREASURER:
I will certainly be advocating that Victorians shouldn’t be punished
because Mr Bracks broke his word.
JOURNALIST:
Nor would you be talked out of the correct decision because of the pressures
of the other Premiers would you?
TREASURER:
Well you know every other Premier will say, we keep our written Agreements
and you make us keep them. Why should the only Premier in the history of Australia
who broke a written Agreement be allowed to profit? Now I will have to think
of an answer to that. But it is not a bad question is it? I will have to think
of an answer. What is the answer? Perhaps I will read the Sunday Age and find
out the answer.
JOURNALIST:
But can’t you say that Robert Doyle has broken his promise too so they
are square?
TREASURER:
No of course you can’t. Did Robert Doyle sign a written Agreement with
the Commonwealth Government? If he did, produce it. Steve Bracks and Peter Batchelor
did. Did Robert Doyle say one thing before an election, get elected and then
break his promise? He hasn’t even run to his election yet. I mean this
idea that there is some kind of moral equivalence between what Steve Bracks
did and the Doyle promise is ridiculous. Mr Bracks wrote a letter to everybody
in the Scoresby corridor saying if you vote for me you will be get a freeway,
and then after he was elected said sorry about that old chum. Mr Doyle runs
to an election with a policy which hasn’t yet occurred. The election hasn’t
yet occurred and to say that there is some kind of moral equivalence between
Mr Doyle putting his promise out there before an election and Mr Bracks breaking
a written Agreement after an election is a long bow. Thank you.