Consumer Price Index – June Quarter 2003

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Consumer Price Index – June Quarter 2003

NO.060

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – JUNE QUARTER 2003

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that the All Groups CPI was unchanged

in the June quarter 2003 to be 2.7 per cent higher over the year, within the

medium-term inflation target band.

The June quarter outcome was the lowest since the March quarter 1999 and reflected

a sharp fall in petrol prices and lower fruit and vegetables prices, partly

reversing earlier rises. Abstracting from the influence of these volatile items,

the CPI rose by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter, to be 2.7 per cent higher

over the year. This moderate rate of underlying inflation is consistent with

recent solid growth in the Australian economy, coupled with subdued growth in

wages and other business input costs.

Australian households benefited from a fall in petrol prices of 9.6 per cent

in the June quarter that subtracted 0.4 of a percentage point from the overall

change in the CPI. The sharp fall in petrol prices reflects both lower world

crude oil prices and the recent appreciation of the Australian dollar. Fruit

and vegetables prices fell by 5.2 per cent in the June quarter, consistent with

the usual seasonal pattern. However, food prices remain 4.4 per cent higher

over the year, with the drought continuing to affect large parts of Australia.

Price increases were recorded for house purchases (up 2.0 per cent, driven

by increased building input costs), hospital and medical services (up 5.2 per

cent, due in part to an increase in private health insurance premiums from 1

April), furniture (up 2.1 per cent, reflecting both the end of new year sales

and increased material costs) and overseas holiday travel and accommodation

(up 1.6 per cent, consistent with the usual seasonal pattern).

Looking forward, the key medium-term influences on inflation point to continued

moderate outcomes in the period ahead. Pressures on business margins from wages

and other business input costs remain in check, while the Australian economy

continues to grow solidly. In addition, the recent appreciation of the Australian

dollar should see lower prices for imported consumables. These conditions are

consistent with the Government’s forecasts that inflation will remain within

the medium-term inflation target in the coming year.

Today’s data confirm that the Australian economy continues to enjoy a healthy

combination of solid growth and moderate inflation, despite a difficult global

environment and the most extensive drought in Australian meteorological records.

MELBOURNE

23 July 2003

Contact: David Alexander

03 9650 0244